The end of THE bump
By mbauer Posted in 2008 — Comments (6) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
It appears that the Obama party unity bump is coming to a close. Over the past few weeks polls have been showing a constant narrowing between the two candidates nationally. What was an 8% edge snear the end of June for Obama has fallen into that "statistically insignificant" department. With leaners Obama takes a 2% lead and without merely a 1% lead.
To further tighten the race, in the Rasmussen poll Obama and McCain share identical favorable to unfavorable ratings.
I'm willing to bet that it takes a little longer for all state polls to catch up to this trend. I really just want to see the netroots in a frenzy about the chosen one falling behind this early.
Recent Poll:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_...
Poll Trend:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_electi...
As soon as electoral maps start to predict McCain with 300+ EVs (which a very small national lead can do) the disenfranchised youth will be the ones to use all their energy and burn out- far before the election.
but I think you two are being WAY over-optimistic. Obama probably has a lead both nationally and with the electoral vote right now, so unless McCain does something to keep chipping that away he will lose.
I have always feared McCain deciding on a low key war of attrition- that is NOT going to work. He needs to land some blows on Obama. Which may be low key but continuous hammering. He can't just wait it out and hope Obama wrecks himself...
"Small town folks get bitter after which they cling to guns or religion, or antipathy to people who aren't like them, or anti-immigrant sentiment"- Barack Carter Obama
The trend right now favors McCain. If this rate continues for 2 more weeks, McCain will likely have the national lead.
I don't desire to be optimistic, but the trend is really favoring McCain. I also believe Obama has plateaued. From this point on, what more can he do to win new votes? All I think he can do for himself is lose votes. He has nothing great in his history that can be seen as inspiring. He has no core principles that he stood by and will eventually prove to be correct. I don't know what will ever give Obama another national bump besides a brilliant speech.
I agree with mbauer, BHO has left himself with little to fall back on in the way of policies or principles. We are already seeing that once the teleprompter is removed his mouth can fit an impressive portion of his foot. The longer this goes on, the more he loses the new car smell, revealing the overwhelming stench of socialsim.
The question is, and seems to have been all along, will McCain be able to capitalize on this? Can he bring the voters to the booth?
"There is no room in this country for hyphenated Americanism..." - Theodore Roosevelt
Let BO keep shooting himself in the foot, all while McCain positions himself as a viable alternative.
-----------------------------------
4.62, 0.51
McCain has to stop making bold moves that can easily be twisted by the other side. Better if MSM cannot find anything to report about McCain. Getting the eyes of the media is burning out Obama.
This poll is more of calculated moves.
McCain statement should focus more on positive issues, including Oil Drilling.
Over the top statements, regardless whether true or not, will give the candidate more negative votes, instead of positive one.
There's nothing McCain can do but be an "impromptu speaker", the shorter the better, and be himself... straight talker. And don't make any hysteria.
MCCAIN DOESN'T NEED TO MATCH EVERY MOVE OF OBAMA... EXCEPT WHEN OBAMA IS MAKING STATEMENT CLEARLY OUTRAGEOUS IN THE EYES OF THE PUBLIC.
Anything grey or 50/50, MSM will give the credit to Obama.
In short: In an election when your main enemy is the MSM, better not to be seen or talked by MSM. Just maximise the use of other media, including townhall meetings and house-to-house.
Small squadron of conservatives and republicans (moderate themes would be better) in areas "unnoticed" by the other side would be very effective.
THE LAST 6 WEEKS ARE ALL ABOUT OBAMA. He will burn out, I am convinced.